Nikkei 225 Forecast for 2024, 2025-2028: Will Nikkei Bounce Back?
On August 5 2024 Nikkei 225 tumbled and crashed in a manner that shocked the global stock market. In this article you will find out why Nikkei 225 crashed, effect of the crash and whether it would bounce back in the foreseeable future.
What Is the Nikkei 225?
The Nikkei is comparable to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index in the United States.
The Nikkei 225 or JPN 225 since its inception in 1950, has been the foremost index of Japan’s top 225 companies that are traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted index of the 225 top-rated Japanese shares traded on the Tokyo Stock exchange.
The Nikkei tracks the performance of 225 top companies listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This index is derived from OTC trading and contracts for difference indexes (CFDs).
Did Nikkei 225 Crashed?
Yes. It happened Monday August 5. Nikkei 225 stock index plunged more than 12% on Monday as investors worried that the U.S. economy may be in worse shape than had been expected and dumped a wide range of shares.
The Nikkei index fell 4,451.28 points to 31,458.42. It dropped 5.8% on Friday and has now logged its worst two-day decline ever, dropping 18.2% in the last two trading sessions.
At its lowest, the Nikkei plunged as much as 13.4% on Monday. Its biggest single-day rout was a drop of 3,836 points, or 14.9%, on the day dubbed “Black Monday” in October 1987.
What caused the Nikkei 225 to crash?
A number of factors conspired to tumble the Nikkei 225 especially this week.
The fall was caused by last week’s global fall in stock prices, which accompanied a gloomy jobs statistics that showed the United States could head for recession, sending a shock wave across markets.
At the end of trading, the Nikkei index shed a massive 12.4%, after dipping as much as 13.4% at one point.
Japan’s stock market, in particular, was hard-hit by the rapid appreciation of the yen, which undermines the export competitiveness of the country’s manufacturers. On Monday, the yen hit a seven-month high against the US dollar at around 143.
Another causal factor is the expectation that Japan may continue with contractionary monetary policy. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said on Wednesday, 7 August 2024, that policymakers would not raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable.
Uchida sought to cool emotions after expectations that Japan would continue to tighten monetary policy sent markets into a tailspin on Monday.
Will Nikkei Bounce Back?
Japanese shares soared Tuesday, clawing back some of their record losses from the previous day and underpinning a patchy recovery on global markets.
Nikkei surged more than 10% on Tuesday to 34,675 points while the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) was up 8.2%.
The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.74% to close at 34,831 while the broader Topix Index lost 1.11% to 2,462 on Thursday.
The review of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting revealed that some members called for the need to keep hiking rates, with one saying they should be brought eventually to at least 1%.
Nikkei 225 Forecast for 2024, 2025-2030
Nikkei 225 Forecast 2024
| Month | Open | Minimum | Maximum | Close | Total % |
| Aug | 38,781.56 | 31,458.42 | 38,781.56 | 36,803.10 | -5.1% |
| Sept | 36,923.50 | 34,173.06 | 40,004.28 | 38,511.32 | 4.3% |
| Oct | 38,511.32 | 36,411.20 | 44,190.17 | 42,431.28 | 10.2% |
| Nov | 42,431.28 | 38,567.24 | 43,356.71 | 39,883.06 | -6.0% |
| Dec | 39,883.06 | 38,665.39 | 47,872.06 | 44,703.15 | 12.0% |
The value of Nikkei 225 will close at about 44,000 in December 31st 2024. We therefore predict that Nikkei is going to bounce back during the year despite the August dive.
Nikkei 225 Forecast 2025
| Month | Open | Minimum | Maximum | Close | Total % |
| Jan | 44,703.15 | 37,662.46 | 45,844.03 | 42,5 67.83 | -4.7% |
| Feb | 42,567.83 | 36,893.07 | 44,089.32 | 41,721.16 | -1.9% |
| Mar | 41,721.16 | 35,049.88 | 44,329.27 | 40,977.69 | -1.8% |
| Apr | 40,977.69 | 36,275.63 | 46,994.11 | 44,548.03 | 8.7% |
| May | 44,648.03 | 35,309.60 | 44,855.06 | 42,911.70 | -3.9% |
| Jun | 42,911.70 | 34,743.92 | 40,560.39 | 39,696.75 | -7.5% |
| Jul | 39,696.75 | 36,942.55 | 43,832.04 | 41,867.11 | 5.5% |
| Aug | 41,867.11 | 35,488.43 | 44,020.67 | 38,283.90 | -8.5% |
| Sep | 38,283.90 | 34,799.02 | 42,564.86 | 36,792.61 | -3.9% |
| Oct | 36,792.61 | 34,909.89 | 42,793.40 | 38,851.09 | 5.6% |
| Nov | 38,851.09 | 34,692.63 | 41,450.38 | 37,622.81 | -3.2% |
| Dec | 37,622.81 | 35,303.87 | 42,171.19 | 39,840.29 | 5.9% |
The value of Nikkei 225 will close at about 39,000 in December 31st 2025. In August 2025, Nikkei opens at 41, 867.11 and closes at 38.283.90. We predict that in the next one year the Nikkei 225 will make a significant improvement in relation to August 2024.
Nikkei 225 Forecast 2026
| Month | Open | Minimum | Maximum | Close | Total % |
| Jan | 39,840.29 | 34,677.08 | 45,919.63 | 42,787.36 | 7.4% |
| Feb | 42,787.36 | 37,812.91 | 44,348.09 | 40,500.59 | -5.3% |
| Mar | 40,500.59 | 38,780.54 | 45,128.31 | 43,118.76 | 6.46% |
| Apr | 43,118.76 | 39,876.46 | 44,554.10 | 40,741.32 | -5.5% |
| May | 40,741.32 | 37,963.22 | 46,683.05 | 43,612.08 | 7.1% |
| Jun | 43,612.08 | 38,075.38 | 44,305.45 | 40,677.11 | -6.7% |
| Jul | 40,677.11 | 37,879.56 | 45,702.83 | 42,892.67 | 5.5% |
| Aug | 42,892.67 | 36,694.43 | 43,555.74 | 39,995.73 | -6.8% |
| Sep | 39,995.73 | 36,879.04 | 45,499.52 | 42,563.78 | 6.4% |
| Oct | 42,563.78 | 38,076.89 | 45,348.56 | 43,700.83 | 2.7% |
| Nov | 43,700.83 | 38,979.44 | 44,693.11 | 40,590.12 | -7.1% |
| Dec | 40,590.12 | 37,883.60 | 45,720.78 | 42,166.32 | 3.9% |
The value of Nikkei 225 will close at about 42,000 in December 31st 2026. In August 2026, Nikkei opens at 42, 892.67 and closes at 39,995.73. We predict that in the next 2 years the Nikkei 225 will maintain a slow but positive growth as it closes still above its value in August 2024.
Nikkei 225 Forecast 2027
| Month | Open | Minimum | Maximum | Close | Total % |
| Jan | 42,166.32 | 36,180.92 | 44,670.14 | 40,564.80 | -3.8% |
| Feb | 40,564.80 | 35,578.40 | 45,892.54 | 43,609.32 | 7.5% |
| Mar | 43,609.32 | 38,608.70 | 46,499.11 | 44,732.78 | 2.6% |
| Apr | 44,732.78 | 38,805.49 | 45,296.30 | 42,810.47 | -4.3% |
| May | 42,810.47 | 39,776.58 | 45,323.06 | 44,421.76 | 3.7% |
| Jun | 44,421.76 | 39.780.34 | 45,845.89 | 43,973.62 | -1.0% |
| Jul | 43,973.62 | 38,780.61 | 44,689.30 | 41,548.07 | -5.5% |
| Aug | 41,548.07 | 37,724.60 | 46,178.22 | 44,084.33 | 6.1% |
| Sep | 44,084.33 | 39,952.82 | 46,430.57 | 42,819.38 | -2.9% |
| Oct | 42,819.38 | 38,685.14 | 46,210.60 | 44,796.13 | 4.6% |
| Nov | 44,796.13 | 40,647.83 | 47,342,06 | 45,618.70 | 1.8% |
| Dec | 45,618.70 | 40,219.58 | 46,872.61 | 44,129.58 | -3.3% |
The value of Nikkei 225 will close at about 44,000 in December 31st 2027. In August 2027, Nikkei opens at 41,548.07 and closes at 44,084.33. We predict that in the next 3 years the Nikkei 225 will sustain steady growth with low volatility as it closes 8-point above its value in August 2024.
Nikkei 225 Forecast 2028
| Month | Open | Minimum | Maximum | Close | Total % |
| Jan | 44,129.58 | 40,530.45 | 46,068.33 | 46,574.38 | 5.5% |
| Feb | 46,574.38 | 41,805.78 | 47,343.19 | 44,703.47 | -4.0% |
| Mar | 44,703.47 | 40,896.53 | 45,721.50 | 43,626.18 | -2.4% |
| Apr | 43,626.18 | 39,892.78 | 46,749.03 | 45,489.64 | 4.3% |
| May | 45,489.64 | 40,830.71 | 48,157.87 | 46,189.67 | 1.5% |
| Jun | 46,189.67 | 40,704.63 | 47,939.72 | 44,538.43 | -3.6% |
| Jul | 44,538.43 | 39.679.04 | 48,513.07 | 46,801.64 | 5.1% |
| Aug | 46,801.64 | 41.540.39 | 47,434,93 | 44,855.70 | -4.3% |
| Sep | 44,855.70 | 40,756.01 | 48,753.82 | 47,078.52 | 4.9% |
| Oct | 47,078.52 | 42,640.76 | 47,247.84 | 45,950.87 | -2.4% |
| Nov | 45,950.87 | 40,791.56 | 50,872.68 | 48,521.67 | 5.6% |
| Dec | 48,521.67 | 43,487.60 | 54,938.42 | 50,617.29 | 4.3% |
The value of Nikkei 225 will close at about 50,000 in December 31st 2028. We expect Nikkei 225 to reach 50,000 by the end of 2028. From the table it is found that in August 2028, Nikkei opens at 46,801.64 and closes at 44,855.70. We predict that in the next 4 years the Nikkei 225 will rise significantly as it closes at about 8-point above its value in August 2024.
Bottom Line
It’s too soon to sing about Nikkei 225 recovery. The Nikkei 225 ended 0.7% on Thursday August 8, breaking the Tuesday and Wednesday winning splash.
On the other hand, the Japanese Yen strengthened 0.6% to 146 against the US dollar, after losing about 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday collectively.
The Nikkei 225 index had climbed in this week’s Tuesday and Wednesday after a sudden crash on Monday August 2024, as investors took some relief from the words of central bank officials who claimed it would not tighten monetary policy.
Analysts are of the opinion that Nikkei 225 will bounce back in the long run. The reason for lack of confidence in short term recovery is that the volatility in the Japanese Yen, which was at the heart of recent market downturn, still remains elevated.
